Snow much uncertainty! Improving communication of winter weather forecasts
Three to six inches of snow. A 40% chance of rain. You’ve seen forecasts like these your entire life, relying on them to decide what to wear or whether to change your travel plans. But would you prepare differently for three inches of snow than for six? What if the range was two to eight inches instead? These decisions aren’t trivial. Two inches of snow versus eight is the difference between a normal Tuesday and closed highways, schools, and businesses. Because winter forecasts can remain uncertain up until snowfall, how do we understand what these forecasts mean and how do we act on them?
In this Explorer Series lecture, Robert Prestley will explain how people interpret uncertain forecasts and make decisions during winter storms and other weather hazards. He will also highlight how NSF NCAR’s research informs the forecasts you see every day.
Robert Prestley
I am a Scientist in the Weather Risk Analysis and Decision-making (WRAD) research group at the NSF National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, CO. I received my Master's degree in Communication from the University of Kentucky in 2019, and my B.S. in meteorology at The Pennsylvania State University in 2017.
My research focuses on how weather communicators, such as the National Weather Service and broadcast meteorologists, use and communicate risk information during evolving weather disasters. I study the content of the information that these sources use and share, how this information diffuses through social networks on platforms like social media, and how information shapes people’s experiences during disasters. I am especially interested in improving risk visualizations and communication of uncertainty information in order to better inform and prepare members of the public for the range of possibilities associated with uncertain weather events.