OpenSky Publications

EDEC OpenSky Publications

Select a year and/or affiliation to see the peer-reviewed publications involving authors from EDEC. The publications span data assimilation, machine learning, visualization, data analysis, model development, research computing operations, and data management services. You can view the full publications and search for specific publications in OpenSky, the open access repository of scholarly works developed and managed by the NSF NCAR Library.

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Publications (Showing 94 )

PINN ME: A physics-informed neural network framework for accurate Milne–Eddington inversions of solar magnetic fields

Jarolim, R., Molnar, M., Tremblay, B., Centeno, R., Rempel, M.. (2025). PINN ME: A physics-informed neural network framework for accurate Milne–Eddington inversions of solar magnetic fields. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/add342

Spectropolarimetric inversions of solar observations are fundamental for the estimation of the magnetic field in the solar atmosphere. However, instrumental noise, computational requirements, and varying levels of physical realism make it ...

Publication Genre: Article

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Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND global km‐scale simulations

Feng, Z., Prein, A., Kukulies, J., Fiolleau, T., Jones, W. K., et al. (2025). Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND global km‐scale simulations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD042204

Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convec...

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High-frequency Coronal Alfvénic Waves observed with DKIST/Cryo-NIRSP

Morton, R. J., Molnar, M., Cranmer, S. R., Schad, T. A.. (2025). High-frequency Coronal Alfvénic Waves observed with DKIST/Cryo-NIRSP. The Astrophysical Journal, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/adb8df

The presence and nature of low-frequency (0.1–10 mHz) Alfvénic waves in the corona have been established over the past decade, with many of these results coming from coronagraphic observations of the infrared Fe xiii line. The Cr...

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Exact nonlinear state estimation

Chipilski, H.. (2025). Exact nonlinear state estimation. Journal of the Atmospheric Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JAS-D-24-0171.1

The majority of data assimilation (DA) methods in the geosciences are based on Gaussian assumptions. While such approximations facilitate efficient algorithms, they cause analysis biases and subsequent forecast degradations. Nonparametric, ...

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Celebrating 50 Years since GATE

Jenney, A. M., Houze, R. A., LeMone, M. A., Thompson, E. J., Ocasio, K. M. N., et al. (2025). Celebrating 50 Years since GATE. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-24-0063.1

The Global Atmospheric Research Program (GARP) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) took place from June to September 1974. It remains the largest field campaign in atmospheric science history. Its 50th anniversary was celebrated at the 104t...

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Automated calibration of Noah-MP land surface model for improved irrigation representation in the North China Plain

Dai, D., Li, Y., Chen, L., Chen, F., Li, Z., et al. (2025). Automated calibration of Noah-MP land surface model for improved irrigation representation in the North China Plain. Journal of Hydrology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2024.132362

Irrigation significantly impacts the terrestrial water and energy cycle. Yet, due to insufficient agriculture management data, omitting important processes in models, and suboptimal model configuration, realistically representing irrigation...

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Climate response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection during the Harmattan season in West Africa

Nkrumah, F., Quenum, G. M. L. D., Quagraine, K. A., Tilmes, S., Klutse, N. A. B., et al. (2025). Climate response to Stratospheric Aerosol Injection during the Harmattan season in West Africa. Environmental Research: Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/2752-5295/adaa0c

Stratospheric Aerosol Injection (SAI), a proposed climate intervention, aims to reduce the amount of solar radiation reaching the Earth’s surface by increasing the reflectivity of the atmosphere, thereby offsetting the warming effect ...

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Mechanisms in regulating the quasi‐biennial oscillation in E3SM version 2

Li, Y., Chen, C., Benedict, J., Huang, K., Richter, J. H., et al. (2025). Mechanisms in regulating the quasi‐biennial oscillation in E3SM version 2. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041868

The update to the deep convection parameterization in the energy exascale Earth system model version 2 (E3SMv2) makes the simulated quasi‐biennial oscillation (QBO) have a shorter period than without the update when other tunable para...

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Fostering the development of Earth data science skills in a diverse community of online learners: A case study of the Earth Data Science Corps

Quarderer, N. A., Wasser, L., Gold, A. U., Montaño, P. A., Herwehe, L., et al. (2025). Fostering the development of Earth data science skills in a diverse community of online learners: A case study of the Earth Data Science Corps. Journal of Statistics and Data Science Education, doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/26939169.2024.2362886

Today’s data-driven world requires earth and environmental scientists to have skills at the intersection of domain and data science. These skills are imperative to harness information contained in a growing volume of complex data to solve...

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Linking radiative‐advective equilibrium regime transition to Arctic amplification

Liang, Y., Miyawaki, O., Shaw, T. A., Mitevski, I., Polvani, L. M., et al. (2025). Linking radiative‐advective equilibrium regime transition to Arctic amplification. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL113417

Emission of anthropogenic greenhouse gases has resulted in greater Arctic warming compared to global warming, known as Arctic amplification (AA). From an energy‐balance perspective, the current Arctic climate is in radiative‐adv...

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Measurements of the solar coronal magnetic field based on coronal seismology with propagating Alfvénic waves: Forward modeling

Gao, Y., Tian, H., Doorsselaere, T. V., Yang, Z., Guo, M., et al. (2025). Measurements of the solar coronal magnetic field based on coronal seismology with propagating Alfvénic waves: Forward modeling. Research in Astronomy and Astrophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/1674-4527/ad981c

Recent observations have demonstrated the capability of mapping the solar coronal magnetic field using the technique of coronal seismology based on the ubiquitous propagating Alfvénic/kink waves through imaging spectroscopy. We establi...

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An evaluation of the seasonal Caribbean hydroclimate in low and high-resolution CESM and other CMIP6 models

Martinez, C. J., Simpson, I. R., Fasullo, J. T., Prein, A.. (2025). An evaluation of the seasonal Caribbean hydroclimate in low and high-resolution CESM and other CMIP6 models. Climate Dynamics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-024-07516-4

The Caribbean and Central American hydroclimate is understudied and complex in part due to its data sparsity, varied topographies, and multi-faceted interactions with the tropics and mid-latitudes. Recent work developed a refined and compre...

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Impacts of thunderstorm‐generated gravity waves on the ionosphere‐thermosphere using TIEGCM‐NG/MAGIC simulations and comparisons with GNSS TEC, ICON, and COSMIC‐2 observations

Lu, X., Wu, H., Heale, C., England, S., Zhang, S.. (2024). Impacts of thunderstorm‐generated gravity waves on the ionosphere‐thermosphere using TIEGCM‐NG/MAGIC simulations and comparisons with GNSS TEC, ICON, and COSMIC‐2 observations. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JA032854

We use the TIEGCM‐NG nudged by MAGIC gravity waves to study the impacts of a severe thunderstorm system, with a hundred tornado touchdowns, on the ionospheric and thermospheric disturbances. The generated waves induce a distinct conce...

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Fast-get-faster explains wavier upper-level jet stream under climate change

Shaw, T. A., Miyawaki, O., Chou, H., Blackport, R.. (2024). Fast-get-faster explains wavier upper-level jet stream under climate change. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-024-01819-4

Earth’s upper-level jet streams primarily flow in the eastward direction. They often exhibit a north-south component or waviness connected to extreme weather at the surface. Recently the upper-level eastward jet stream was found to ex...

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The effect of pseudo‐global warming on the weather‐climate system of Africa in a convection‐permitting model

Ocasio, K. M. N., Dougherty, E. M.. (2024). The effect of pseudo‐global warming on the weather‐climate system of Africa in a convection‐permitting model. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL112341

The African easterly jet (AEJ) and the West African Monsoon (WAM) can largely modulate high-impact weather over Africa and the tropical Atlantic. How these features will change with a warming climate is just starting to be addressed due to ...

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Simulating precipitation efficiency across the deep convective gray zone

Kukulies, J., Prein, A., Morrison, H.. (2024). Simulating precipitation efficiency across the deep convective gray zone. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024JD041924

Precipitation efficiency (PE) relates cloud condensation to precipitation and thus reflects how much of the total atmospheric condensate reaches the surface as precipitation. Because the PE in convective storms is directly linked to their u...

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Earth System Predictability Across Timescales Community Workshop Report

Richter, J. H., Colegrove, D., Aponte, K. L., Bell, C., Davis, C. A., et al. (2024). Earth System Predictability Across Timescales Community Workshop Report. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/f4hy-2b23

As climate change increases the frequency and severity of extreme weather events, communities are facing growing vulnerability. Addressing this urgent challenge requires deepening our understanding of Earth system processes, uncertainties, ...

Publication Genre: Technical Report

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Influences of the quasi-two-day wave on plasma bubble behavior over South America

Bossert, K., Kumari, K., Inchin, P., Norrell, J., Eckermann, S., et al. (2024). Influences of the quasi-two-day wave on plasma bubble behavior over South America. Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2024.1465230

Equatorial Plasma Bubbles (EPBs) are a region of depleted ionospheric densities. EPBs are known to fluctuate both seasonally and day to day, and have been linked to changes in solar activity, geomagnetic activity, and seeding resulting from...

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A simple subtropical high‐pressure system index over the South Atlantic

Quagraine, K. A., Hewitson, B., Nkrumah, F., Quagraine, K. T., Egbebiyi, T. S.. (2024). A simple subtropical high‐pressure system index over the South Atlantic. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1266

This research introduces a novel index for the South Atlantic High Pressure (SAHP) system to enhance understanding of regional climate variability and change. Subtropical highs significantly influence regional climates, yet comprehensive in...

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Constraints on acoustic wave energy fluxes and radiative losses in the solar chromosphere from non-LTE inversions

Santos, J. M. d. S., Molnar, M., Milić, I., Rempel, M., Reardon, K., et al. (2024). Constraints on acoustic wave energy fluxes and radiative losses in the solar chromosphere from non-LTE inversions. The Astrophysical Journal, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/ad81d4

Accurately assessing the balance between acoustic wave energy fluxes and radiative losses is critical for understanding how the solar chromosphere is thermally regulated. We investigate the energy balance in the chromosphere by comparing de...

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Dust, convection, winds, and waves: The 2022 NASA CPEX-CV campaign

Nowottnick, E. P., Rowe, A. K., Nehrir, A. R., Zawislak, J., Pina, A., et al. (2024). Dust, convection, winds, and waves: The 2022 NASA CPEX-CV campaign. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0201.1

The NASA Convective Processes Experiment-Cabo Verde (CPEX-CV) field campaign took place in September 2022 out of Sal Island, Cabo Verde. A unique payload aboard the NASA DC-8 aircraft equipped with advanced remote sensing and in situ instru...

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Evolution of cloud droplet temperature and lifetime in spatiotemporally varying subsaturated environments with implications for ice nucleation at cloud edges

Roy, P., Rauber, R. M., Girolamo, L. D.. (2024). Evolution of cloud droplet temperature and lifetime in spatiotemporally varying subsaturated environments with implications for ice nucleation at cloud edges. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-24-11653-2024

Ice formation mechanisms in generating cells near stratiform cloud tops, where mixing and entrainment occurs in the presence of supercooled water droplets, remain poorly understood. Supercooled cloud droplet temperature and lifetime may imp...

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Observing the evolution of the Sun’s global coronal magnetic field over 8 months

Yang, Z., Tian, H., Tomczyk, S., Liu, X., Gibson, S. E., et al. (2024). Observing the evolution of the Sun’s global coronal magnetic field over 8 months. Science, doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/science.ado2993

The magnetic field in the Sun’s corona stores energy that can be released to heat plasma and drive solar eruptions. Measurements of the global coronal magnetic field have been limited to several snapshots. In this work, we present obs...

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Can we use km-scale climate model simulations to estimate the precipitation efficiency of convective storms?

Kukulies, J., Prein, A., Morrison, H.. (2024). Can we use km-scale climate model simulations to estimate the precipitation efficiency of convective storms?.

Publication Genre: Conference Material

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tobac: Tracking and object-based analysis of clouds

Kukulies, J., Jones, W. K., Ritman, M., Freeman, S., Bruner, K., et al. (2024). tobac: Tracking and object-based analysis of clouds.

Publication Genre: Conference Material

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Bridging the COSMOS: How the inclusion of and collaboration with Faith-Based Understandings and Indigenous Knowledges can transform the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise

Martinez, C. J., Das, D., Bloomfield, E. F., Abraham, J., Knox, J., et al. (2024). Bridging the COSMOS: How the inclusion of and collaboration with Faith-Based Understandings and Indigenous Knowledges can transform the Weather, Water, and Climate Enterprise. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0047.1

Climate change is a global existential threat with far-reaching implications for natural ecosystems, biodiversity, and human societies. Adapting to and mitigating climate change require global cooperation and participation from all mindsets...

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Projected changes in rainfall extremes over West African cities under specific global warming levels using CORDEX and NEX-GDDP datasets

Klutse, N. A. B., Abiodun, B. J., Quagraine, K. A., Nkrumah, F., Abaton, A. A., et al. (2024). Projected changes in rainfall extremes over West African cities under specific global warming levels using CORDEX and NEX-GDDP datasets. Earth Systems and Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s41748-024-00425-w

We analyze long-term extreme events in daily precipitation for the period of 1950–2005 and future projections from 2006 to 2100 based on representative concentration pathways (RCP8.5) over West Africa, including twelve major cities of...

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SubAuroral red arcs generated by inner magnetospheric heat flux and by subauroral polarization streams

Lin, D., Wang, W., Fok, M., Pham, K., Yue, J., et al. (2024). SubAuroral red arcs generated by inner magnetospheric heat flux and by subauroral polarization streams. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2024GL109617

Subauroral red (SAR) arcs are commonly observed ionospheric red line emissions. They are usually attributed to subauroral electron heating by inner magnetospheric heat flux (IMHF). However, the role of IMHF in changing the ionosphere-thermo...

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TAMS: A tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems in simulated and satellite-derived datasets

Ocasio, K. M. N., Moon, Z.. (2024). TAMS: A tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems in simulated and satellite-derived datasets. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-17-6035-2024

The Tracking Algorithm for Mesoscale Convective Systems (TAMS) is a tracking, classifying, and variable-assigning algorithm for mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). TAMS was initially developed to analyze MCSs over Africa and their relation...

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Tropical cyclone asymmetric eyewall evolution and intensification in a two-layer model

Cha, T., Bell, M. M.. (2024). Tropical cyclone asymmetric eyewall evolution and intensification in a two-layer model. Weather and Climate Dynamics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/wcd-5-1013-2024

Radar and satellite imagery of numerous intensifying tropical cyclones (TCs) depict an appearance of a polygonal eyewall structure where deep convection is often located near the polygonal vertices. A recent observational study of Hurr...

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Research on the air-infiltration rate shelter coefficient of building complexes based on building parameter clustering

Zheng, S., Song, X., Duanmu, L., Xue, Y., Wang, Y., et al. (2024). Research on the air-infiltration rate shelter coefficient of building complexes based on building parameter clustering. Journal of Building Engineering, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2024.109615

The configuration of a building complex can significantly influence the air-infiltration rate, which subsequently affects the energy consumption for heating and cooling. Given the diversity of parameters associated with a building complex, ...

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NSF NCAR Earth System Science and Technology Hubs (NESTs) Phase I Report

Joseph, E., Romine, G., Haacker, R., Cains, M., Colegrove, D., et al. (2024). NSF NCAR Earth System Science and Technology Hubs (NESTs) Phase I Report. , doi:https://doi.org/10.5065/1rat-x782

Over the past three years, the U.S. National Science Foundation National Center for Atmospheric Research (NSF NCAR) has been exploring the concept of NSF NCAR Earth System Science and Technology hubs (NESTs) and conducted a feasibility stud...

Publication Genre: Technical Report

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Improving ensemble data assimilation through Probit-space Ensemble Size Expansion for Gaussian Copulas (PESE-GC)

Chan, M. Y.. (2024). Improving ensemble data assimilation through Probit-space Ensemble Size Expansion for Gaussian Copulas (PESE-GC). Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/npg-31-287-2024

Small forecast ensemble sizes (< 100) are common in the ensemble data assimilation (EnsDA) component of geophysical forecast systems, thus limiting the error-constraining power of EnsDA. This study proposes an efficient and embarrassingly p...

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Redefining arctic boundaries in a changing climate: Interdisciplinary perspectives on governance strategies

Nanni, U., DeRepentigny, P., Lundén, A., Popovaitė, V., Shen, Y., et al. (2024). Redefining arctic boundaries in a changing climate: Interdisciplinary perspectives on governance strategies. Polar Geography, doi:https://doi.org/10.1080/1088937X.2024.2359926

The Arctic rapidly transforms due to global warming and increased human activities, triggering complex changes at unprecedented speeds that challenge conventional institutional responses. We analyse these changes through the lenses of socia...

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Moisture dependence of an African easterly wave within the West African monsoon system

Ocasio, K. M. N., Davis, C. A., Moon, Z., Lawton, Q. A.. (2024). Moisture dependence of an African easterly wave within the West African monsoon system. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004070

The growth and propagation of African easterly waves (AEWs) remains an active area of research, especially for those that become tropical cyclones (TCs). This is partly due to the complex role of moisture, realized through AEW-convection in...

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Km-scale simulations of mesoscale convective systems over South America - a feature tracker intercomparison

Prein, A., Feng, Z., Fiolleau, T., Moon, Z., Ocasio, K. M. N., et al. (2024). Km-scale simulations of mesoscale convective systems over South America - a feature tracker intercomparison. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD040254

Mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) are clusters of thunderstorms that are important in Earth's water and energy cycle. Additionally, they are responsible for extreme events such as large hail, strong winds, and extreme precipitation. Autom...

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Evidence for SSW triggered Q6DW-tide and Q6DW-gravity wave interactions observed by meteor radars at 30°S

Qiao, Z., Liu, A. Z., Pedatella, N. M., Stober, G., Reid, I. M., et al. (2024). Evidence for SSW triggered Q6DW-tide and Q6DW-gravity wave interactions observed by meteor radars at 30°S. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL108066

An exceptionally strong westward propagating quasi-6-day wave (Q6DW) with zonal wavenumber 1 in connection with the rare 2019 Southern Hemispheric Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) is observed by two meteor radars at 30 degrees S and is fo...

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Observational quantification of tropical high cloud changes and feedbacks

Raghuraman, S. P., Medeiros, B., Gettelman, A.. (2024). Observational quantification of tropical high cloud changes and feedbacks. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039364

The response of tropical high clouds to surface warming and their radiative feedbacks are uncertain. For example, it is uncertain whether their coverage will contract or expand in response to surface warming and whether such changes entail ...

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Relative contributions of field-aligned currents and particle precipitation to Inter-Hemispheric Asymmetry at high latitudes during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm

Hong, Y., Deng, Y., Maute, A., Lu, G., Zhu, Q., et al. (2024). Relative contributions of field-aligned currents and particle precipitation to Inter-Hemispheric Asymmetry at high latitudes during the 2015 St. Patrick's Day storm. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JA032279

High latitude upper atmospheric inter-hemispheric asymmetry (IHA) tends to be enhanced during geomagnetic storms, which may be due to the complex spatiotemporal changes and magnitude modifications in field aligned currents (FACs) and partic...

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17 O-excess in tropical cyclones reflects local rain re-evaporation more than moisture source conditions

Sun, C., Shanahan, T., He, S., Bailey, A., Nusbaumer, J., et al. (2024). 17 O-excess in tropical cyclones reflects local rain re-evaporation more than moisture source conditions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039361

O-17-excess is a relatively new water isotope parameter that could potentially provide useful information about the hydrological cycle. Previous works focusing on O-17-excess in polar regions suggest that it primarily tracks moisture source...

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Advancing solar magnetic field extrapolations through multiheight magnetic field measurements

Jarolim, R., Tremblay, B., Rempel, M., Molnar, M., Veronig, A. M., et al. (2024). Advancing solar magnetic field extrapolations through multiheight magnetic field measurements. The Astrophysical Journal Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/2041-8213/ad2450

Nonlinear force-free extrapolations are a common approach to estimate the 3D topology of coronal magnetic fields based on photospheric vector magnetograms. The force-free assumption is a valid approximation at coronal heights, but for the d...

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Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change

Shaw, T. A., Miyawaki, O.. (2024). Fast upper-level jet stream winds get faster under climate change. Nature Climate Change, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-023-01884-1

Earth's upper-level jet streams influence the speed and direction of travel of weather systems and commercial aircraft, and are linked to severe weather occurrence. Climate change is projected to accelerate the average upper-level jet strea...

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Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO2 exchange

Jin, Y., Keeling, R. F., Stephens, B., Long, M., Patra, P. K., et al. (2024). Improved atmospheric constraints on Southern Ocean CO2 exchange. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2309333121

We present improved estimates of air-sea CO2 exchange over three latitude bands of the Southern Ocean using atmospheric CO2 measurements from global airborne campaigns and an atmospheric 4 - box inverse model based on a mass- indexed isentr...

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A method for constructing directional surface wave spectra from ICESat-2 altimetry

Hell, M. C., Horvat, C.. (2024). A method for constructing directional surface wave spectra from ICESat-2 altimetry. The Cryosphere, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-18-341-2024

Sea ice is important for Earth's energy budget as it influences surface albedo and air-sea fluxes in polar regions. On its margins, waves heavily impact sea ice. Routine and repeat observations of waves in sea ice are currently lacking, and...

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Improving postdoctoral training programs through alumni perspectives and experiences: A study of NCAR's Advanced Study Program

Haacker, R., Vara, M., Sloan, V., Montaño, P. A., Davis, C. A., et al. (2024). Improving postdoctoral training programs through alumni perspectives and experiences: A study of NCAR's Advanced Study Program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0029.1

The Advanced Study Program (ASP) at the National Center for Atmospheric Research has supported the career development of postdoctoral fellows for over 60 years. This study of ASP alumni helps better understand their career paths and provide...

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Advancing South American water and climate science through multidecadal Convection-Permitting modeling

Dominguez, F., Rasmussen, R. M., Liu, C., Ikeda, K., Prein, A., et al. (2024). Advancing South American water and climate science through multidecadal Convection-Permitting modeling. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0226.1

The South America Affinity Group (SAAG) was established in early 2019 by the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Water Systems Program as a community effort focused on improving hydroclimate science over South America. SAAG supp...

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Greenhouse gas forcing and climate feedback signatures identified in hyperspectral infrared satellite observations

Raghuraman, S. P., Paynter, D., Ramaswamy, V., Menzel, R., Huang, X.. (2023). Greenhouse gas forcing and climate feedback signatures identified in hyperspectral infrared satellite observations. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103947

Global greenhouse gas forcing and feedbacks are the primary causes of climate change but have limited direct observations. Here we show that continuous, stable, global, hyperspectral infrared satellite measurements (2003-2021) display decre...

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Quantifying the contributions of aerosol - and snow-produced ClNO 2 through observations and 1D modeling

Jeong, D., McNamara, S. M., Chen, Q., Mirrielees, J., Edebeli, J., et al. (2023). Quantifying the contributions of aerosol - and snow-produced ClNO 2 through observations and 1D modeling. ACS Earth and Space Chemistry, doi:https://doi.org/10.1021/acsearthspacechem.3c00237

Nitryl chloride (ClNO2) is a radical reservoir that forms and accumulates in the nocturnal atmospheric boundary layer influenced by combustion emissions and chloride (e.g., sea salt and road salt). Upon sunrise, ClNO2 rapidly photolyzes to ...

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To understand climate change adaptation, we must characterize climate variability: Here's how

Pisor, A. C., Touma, D., Singh, D., Jones, J. H.. (2023). To understand climate change adaptation, we must characterize climate variability: Here's how. One Earth, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.oneear.2023.11.005

Climate change adaptation involves the management of climate-related risks, and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change says we must prioritize adaptation immediately. However, researchers and policymakers have little systematic under...

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Toward improved short-term forecasting for Lake Victoria Basin. Part I: A radar-based convective mode analysis

Méndez, A. d. M., Weckwerth, T., Roberts, R., Wilson, J. W.. (2023). Toward improved short-term forecasting for Lake Victoria Basin. Part I: A radar-based convective mode analysis. Weather and Forecasting, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/WAF-D-23-0039.1

East African countries benefit economically from the largest freshwater lake in Africa: Lake Victoria (LV). Around 30 million people live along its coastline, and 5.4 million people subsist on its fishing industry. However, more than 1000 f...

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Stratospheric climate anomalies and ozone loss caused by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption

Wang, X., Randel, W., Zhu, Y., Tilmes, S., Starr, J., et al. (2023). Stratospheric climate anomalies and ozone loss caused by the Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023JD039480

The Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai (HTHH) volcanic eruption in January 2022 injected unprecedented amounts of water vapor (H2O) and a moderate amount of the aerosol precursor sulfur dioxide (SO2) into the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical strato...

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Effect of nitryl chloride chemistry on air quality in South Korea during the KORUS-AQ campaign

Kim, H., Park, R. J., Kim, S., Jeong, J. I., Jeong, D., et al. (2023). Effect of nitryl chloride chemistry on air quality in South Korea during the KORUS-AQ campaign. Atmospheric Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosenv.2023.120045

Nitryl chloride (ClNO2) can play an important role in determining ozone and particulate matter (PM) chemistry as a nighttime reservoir of NOX and a source of chlorine radical (Cl BULL; ) in the daytime in polluted environments. We present a...

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Enhancing the community Noah-MP land model capabilities for Earth sciences and applications

He, C., Chen, F., Barlage, M., Yang, Z., Wegiel, J. W., et al. (2023). Enhancing the community Noah-MP land model capabilities for Earth sciences and applications. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-23-0249.1

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NSF GEO REU program coordinators show adaptability and resiliency during the pandemic

Lamphere, J., Palmer, M., Sloan, V.. (2023). NSF GEO REU program coordinators show adaptability and resiliency during the pandemic. Scholarship and Practice of Undergraduate Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.18833/spur/7/2/8

During the COVID-19 pandemic, many undergraduate internships, including the National Science Foundation (NSF) Research Experiences for Undergraduates (REU) programs, were canceled or moved online. Although several studies have examined stud...

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Controls of variability in the Laurentian Great Lakes terrestrial water budget

Minallah, S., Steiner, A. L., Ivanov, V. Y., Wood, A.. (2023). Controls of variability in the Laurentian Great Lakes terrestrial water budget. Water Resources Research, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022WR033759

The land surface hydrology of the North American Great Lakes region regulates ecosystem water availability, lake levels, vegetation dynamics, and agricultural practices. In this study, we analyze the Great Lakes terrestrial water budget usi...

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Magnetohydrodynamic mode conversion in the solar corona: Insights from Fresnel-like models of waves at sharp interfaces

Cranmer, S. R., Molnar, M.. (2023). Magnetohydrodynamic mode conversion in the solar corona: Insights from Fresnel-like models of waves at sharp interfaces. The Astrophysical Journal, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/acee6c

The solar atmosphere is known to contain many different types of wave-like oscillation. Waves and other fluctuations (e.g., turbulent eddies) are believed to be responsible for at least some of the energy transport and dissipation that heat...

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Science education: Expanding our reach and building for the future

Haacker, R., Mulvihill, E. A.. (2023). Science education: Expanding our reach and building for the future.

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The Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory (COSMO)

Gibson, S. E., Wilson, M.. (2023). The Coronal Solar Magnetism Observatory (COSMO).

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3D MHD time-dependent charge state ionization and recombination modeling of the Bastille Day Coronal Mass Ejection

Rivera, Y. J., Raymond, J. C., Reeves, K. K., Lepri, S. T., Lionello, R., et al. (2023). 3D MHD time-dependent charge state ionization and recombination modeling of the Bastille Day Coronal Mass Ejection. The Astrophysical Journal, doi:https://doi.org/10.3847/1538-4357/aceef8

Heavy ion signatures of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) indicate that rapid and strong heating takes place during the eruption and early stages of propagation. However, the nature of the heating that produces the highly ionized charge states ...

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Tropical cyclogenesis: Controlling factors and physical mechanisms

Rajasree, V., Cao, X., Ramsay, H., Ocasio, K. M. N., Kilroy, G., et al. (2023). Tropical cyclogenesis: Controlling factors and physical mechanisms. Tropical Cyclone Research and Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tcrr.2023.09.004

In this review, advances in the understanding of the controlling factors and physical mechanisms of tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) are summarized from recent (2018-2022) research on TCG, as presented in the Tenth International Workshop on Trop...

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Connecting physical and social science datasets: Challenges and pathways forward

Shah, S. H., O'Lenick, C. R., Wan, J. S., Valle, A. N. R., Ash, K. D., et al. (2023). Connecting physical and social science datasets: Challenges and pathways forward. Environmental Research Communications, doi:https://doi.org/10.1088/2515-7620/acf6b4

The integration of physical and social science data can enable novel frameworks, methodologies, and innovative solutions important for addressing complex socio-environmental problems. Unfortunately, many technical, procedural, and instituti...

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Near-surface wind convergence over the Gulf Stream - The role of SST revisited

Small, R. J., Rousseau, V., Parfitt, R., Laurindo, L. C., O'Neill, L., et al. (2023). Near-surface wind convergence over the Gulf Stream - The role of SST revisited. Journal of Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0441.1

High-resolution observations have demonstrated the presence of strong time-mean near-surface wind convergence (NSWC) anchored across oceanic frontal zones, such as the western boundary currents. Initial analyses appeared to show a close ass...

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Atmospheric processes control the stable isotopic variability of precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, East Asian monsoon region

Wu, H., Fan, H., Lei, R., Sun, C., Wang, S., et al. (2023). Atmospheric processes control the stable isotopic variability of precipitation in the middle-lower reaches of the Yangtze River Basin, East Asian monsoon region. Journal of Hydrology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2023.129835

Paleoclimatic records in the East Asian monsoon region (EAM) depend on precipitation isotopes as proxies for past hydroclimatic variability. However, the potential mechanisms controlling precipitation isotopic variability in this region rem...

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Examining Convective Froude Number as a Fire Spread Rate and Plume Structure Predictor Using the WRF Model

Maynard, N., Eghdami, M., DeRepentigny, P., Malmberg, J., Barfield, A.. (2023). Examining Convective Froude Number as a Fire Spread Rate and Plume Structure Predictor Using the WRF Model.

Fire responders and local authorities face significant challenges when dealing with extreme wildfires. These fires are unpredictable and exhibit varying spread rates and plume structures depending on whether the fire regime is plume-driven ...

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CERESMIP: A climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance

Schmidt, G. A., Andrews, T., Bauer, S. E., Durack, P. J., Loeb, N. G., et al. (2023). CERESMIP: A climate modeling protocol to investigate recent trends in the Earth's Energy Imbalance. Frontiers in Climate, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fclim.2023.1202161

The Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project has now produced over two decades of observed data on the Earth's Energy Imbalance (EEI) and has revealed substantive trends in both the reflected shortwave and outgoing longw...

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Commitment to active allyship is required to address the lack of Hispanic and Latinx representation in the Earth and atmospheric sciences

Morales, A., Molina, M., Trujillo-Falcón, J. E., Ocasio, K. M. N., Lang, A. L., et al. (2023). Commitment to active allyship is required to address the lack of Hispanic and Latinx representation in the Earth and atmospheric sciences. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-22-0075.1

In 2021, people of Hispanic and Latinx origin made up 6% of the atmospheric and Earth sciences workforce of the United States, yet they represent 20% of the population. Motivated by this disparity in Hispanic and Latinx representation in th...

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Interhemispheric asymmetry of the thermospheric neutral density response to the 7-9 September 2017 geomagnetic storms

Zhu, Q., Lu, G., Lei, J., Deng, Y., Doornbos, E., et al. (2023). Interhemispheric asymmetry of the thermospheric neutral density response to the 7-9 September 2017 geomagnetic storms. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL103208

The thermospheric neutral density response to the 7-9 September 2017 storms is investigated based on the Swarm satellite observations and the thermosphere-ionosphere-electrodynamic general circulation model (TIEGCM) simulation. The Swarm da...

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Deep learning forecast uncertainty for precipitation over the western United States

Hu, W., Ghazvinian, M., Chapman, W., Sengupta, A., Ralph, F. M., et al. (2023). Deep learning forecast uncertainty for precipitation over the western United States. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0268.1

Reliably quantifying uncertainty in precipitation forecasts remains a critical challenge. This work examines the application of a deep learning (DL) architecture, Unet, for postprocessing deterministic numerical weather predictions of preci...

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The impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on extreme fire weather risk

Touma, D., Hurrell, J. W., Jones, M., Dagon, K.. (2023). The impact of Stratospheric Aerosol Injection on extreme fire weather risk. Earth's Future, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2023EF003626

Stratospheric aerosol injection (SAI) would potentially be effective in limiting global warming and preserving large-scale temperature patterns; however, there are still gaps in understanding the impact of SAI on wildfire risk. In this stud...

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Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific

Wu, X., Yeager, S., Deser, C., Rosenbloom, N., Meehl, G. A.. (2023). Volcanic forcing degrades multiyear-to-decadal prediction skill in the tropical Pacific. Science Advances, doi:https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.add9364

Volcanic aerosol forcing can affect global climate, but its role in climate prediction remains poorly understood. We isolate the impact of volcanic eruptions on multiyear-to-decadal climate prediction skill by comparing two suites of initia...

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Using deep learning for an analysis of atmospheric rivers in a high-resolution large ensemble climate data set

Higgins, T. B., Subramanian, A. C., Graubner, A., Kapp-Schwoerer, L., Watson, P. A. G., et al. (2023). Using deep learning for an analysis of atmospheric rivers in a high-resolution large ensemble climate data set. Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003495

There is currently large uncertainty over the impacts of climate change on precipitation trends over the US west coast. Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are a significant source of US west coast precipitation and trends in ARs can provide insight i...

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Potential impacts on ozone and climate from a proposed fleet of supersonic aircraft

Zhang, J., Wuebbles, D., Pfaender, J. H., Kinnison, D. E., Davis, N. A.. (2023). Potential impacts on ozone and climate from a proposed fleet of supersonic aircraft. Earth's Future, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022EF003409

There has been renewed interest in developing commercial supersonic transport aircraft due to the increased overall demands by the public for air travel, the aspiration for more intercontinental travel, and the desire for shorter flight tim...

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Investigation of the southern hemisphere mid-high latitude thermospheric ∑o/n2 responses to the Space-X storm

Cai, X., Wang, W., Lin, D., Eastes, R. W., Qian, L., et al. (2023). Investigation of the southern hemisphere mid-high latitude thermospheric ∑o/n2 responses to the Space-X storm. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JA031002

The geomagnetic storm on February 3, 2022 caused the loss of 38 Starlink satellites of Space-X. The Global-scale Observations of the Limb and Disk (GOLD) observations and Multi-Scale Atmosphere Geospace Environment (MAGE) model simulations ...

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Geographic and demographic variation in worry about extreme heat and COVID-19 risk in summer 2020

Howe, P. D., Wilhelmi, O., Hayden, M. H., O'Lenick, C. R.. (2023). Geographic and demographic variation in worry about extreme heat and COVID-19 risk in summer 2020. Applied Geography, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apgeog.2023.102876

Extreme heat is a major health hazard that is exacerbated by ongoing human-caused climate change. However, how populations perceive the risks of heat in the context of other hazards like COVID-19, and how perceptions vary geographically, ar...

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A one-step-ahead ensemble Kalman smoothing approach toward estimating the tropical cyclone surface-exchange coefficients

Nystrom, R. G., Snyder, C., Gharamti, M. E.. (2023). A one-step-ahead ensemble Kalman smoothing approach toward estimating the tropical cyclone surface-exchange coefficients. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-22-0147.1

In this study, a one-step-ahead ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS) is introduced for the purposes of parameter estimation. The potential for this system to provide new constraints on the surface-exchange coefficients of momentum (Cd) and entha...

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Inter-hemispheric asymmetries in high-latitude electrodynamic forcing and the thermosphere during the October 8–9, 2012, geomagnetic storm: An integrated data-model investigation

Hong, Y., Deng, Y., Zhu, Q., Maute, A., Hairston, M. R., et al. (2023). Inter-hemispheric asymmetries in high-latitude electrodynamic forcing and the thermosphere during the October 8–9, 2012, geomagnetic storm: An integrated data-model investigation. Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2023.1062265

Inter-hemispheric asymmetry (IHA) in Earth's ionosphere-thermosphere (IT) system can be associated with high-latitude forcing that intensifies during storm time, e.g., ion convection, auroral electron precipitation, and energy deposition, b...

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African easterly wave evolution and tropical cyclogenesis in a pre-Helene (2006) hindcast using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A)

Ocasio, K. M. N., Rios-Berrios, R.. (2023). African easterly wave evolution and tropical cyclogenesis in a pre-Helene (2006) hindcast using the Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A). Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022MS003181

Tropical cyclogenesis (TCG) remains an elusive phenomenon partly due to the limited understanding of complex water vapor-convection-wave interactions. The Model for Prediction Across Scales-Atmosphere (MPAS-A) was used to study the TCG of t...

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Spatio-temporal comparisons of the hydrogen-alpha line width and ALMA 3 mm brightness temperature in the weak solar network

Tarr, L. A., Kobelski, A. R., Jaeggli, S. A., Molnar, M., Cauzzi, G., et al. (2023). Spatio-temporal comparisons of the hydrogen-alpha line width and ALMA 3 mm brightness temperature in the weak solar network. Frontiers in Astronomy and Space Sciences, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fspas.2022.978405

Comparisons between the Atacama Large Millimeter/sub-millimeter Array (ALMA) 3 mm emission and a range of optical and UV solar observations have found the strongest correspondence between the width of the hydrogen alpha line at 656.3 nm and...

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Progress, challenges, and future steps in data assimilation for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction: Report on the virtual meeting held on 10 and 12 November 2021

Hu, G., Dance, S. L., Bannister, R. N., Chipilski, H., Guillet, O., et al. (2023). Progress, challenges, and future steps in data assimilation for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction: Report on the virtual meeting held on 10 and 12 November 2021. Atmospheric Science Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1002/asl.1130

In November 2021, the Royal Meteorological Society Data Assimilation (DA) Special Interest Group and the University of Reading hosted a virtual meeting on the topic of DA for convection-permitting numerical weather prediction. The goal of t...

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The delayed response of the troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere coupling to the 2019 Southern SSW

Yang, C., Li, T., Lai, D., Wang, X., Xue, X., et al. (2022). The delayed response of the troposphere-stratosphere-mesosphere coupling to the 2019 Southern SSW. Geophysical Research Letters, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022GL101759

A strong Southern Hemisphere (SH) sudden stratospheric warming event occurred in September 2019 and significantly weakened the stratospheric polar vortex. Due to the positive zonal wind anomalies in the troposphere, the barotropic/baroclini...

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The ethics of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the earth system sciences

Burt, M. A., Haacker, R., Montaño, P. A., Vara, M., Sloan, V.. (2022). The ethics of diversity, equity, inclusion, and justice in the earth system sciences. Frontiers in Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.3389/fphy.2022.1085789

Institutions' motivations for pursuing diversity, equity, inclusion and justice (DEIJ) often center on the benefits to the organization, an argument known as the business case for diversity in which diverse teams are more creative, set high...

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A city-scale inverse modelling method for air pollutant source determination

Wang, Y., Zhai, Z. (., Xue, Y.. (2022). A city-scale inverse modelling method for air pollutant source determination. Sustainable Cities and Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scs.2022.104248

Urban air pollution is a major environmental hazard. Accurate and rapid identification of pollutant sources is a crucial component of efficient strategies to protect public health. The mostly used back-trajectory analysis and source-recepto...

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Analysis on convective heat transfer coefficients of external surfaces for typical building arrays

Zheng, S., Wang, Y., Feng, F., Xue, Y., Wang, Z., et al. (2022). Analysis on convective heat transfer coefficients of external surfaces for typical building arrays. Journal of Building Engineering, doi:https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jobe.2022.105381

Urban architecture has a great impact on the flow field among buildings, leading to the varying of building surface convective heat transfer coefficient (CHTC), which then influences heat ex-change and heating/cooling energy consumption. Th...

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Modeling solar eclipses at extreme ultra violet wavelengths and the effects of nonuniform eclipse shadow on the ionosphere-thermosphere system

Mrak, S., Zhu, Q., Deng, Y., Dammasch, I. E., Dominique, M., et al. (2022). Modeling solar eclipses at extreme ultra violet wavelengths and the effects of nonuniform eclipse shadow on the ionosphere-thermosphere system. Journal of Geophysical Research: Space Physics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JA031058

The impacts of solar eclipses on the ionosphere-thermosphere system particularly the composition, density, and transport are studied using numerical simulation and subsequent model-data comparison. We introduce a newly developed model of a ...

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Effects of grid spacing on high-frequency precipitation variance in coupled high-resolution global ocean–atmosphere models

Light, C. X., Arbic, B. K., Martin, P. E., Brodeau, L., Farrar, J. T., et al. (2022). Effects of grid spacing on high-frequency precipitation variance in coupled high-resolution global ocean–atmosphere models. Climate Dynamics, doi:https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06257-6

High-frequency precipitation variance is calculated in 12 different free-running (non-data-assimilative) coupled high resolution atmosphere-ocean model simulations, an assimilative coupled atmosphere-ocean weather forecast model, and an ass...

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Advancing interdisciplinary and convergent science for communities: Lessons learned through the NCAR Early-Career Faculty Innovator Program

Bukvic, A., Mandli, K., Finn, D., Mayo, T., Wong-Parodi, G., et al. (2022). Advancing interdisciplinary and convergent science for communities: Lessons learned through the NCAR Early-Career Faculty Innovator Program. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-21-0265.1

The authors introduce the National Center for Atmospheric Research's Early-Career Faculty Innovator Program and present lessons learned about advancing interdisciplinary and convergent science with and for society. The Innovator Program bri...

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Perturbations in stratospheric aerosol evolution due to the water-rich plume of the 2022 Hunga-Tonga eruption

Zhu, Y., Bardeen, C., Tilmes, S., Mills, M. J., Wang, X., et al. (2022). Perturbations in stratospheric aerosol evolution due to the water-rich plume of the 2022 Hunga-Tonga eruption. Communications Earth & Environment, doi:https://doi.org/10.1038/s43247-022-00580-w

The January 2022 Hunga Tonga-Hunga Ha'apai volcanic eruption injected a relatively small amount of sulfur dioxide, but significantly more water into the stratosphere than previously seen in the modern satellite record. Here we show that the...

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Assessment of using field-aligned currents to drive the global ionosphere thermosphere model: A case study for the 2013 St Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm

Zhu, Q., Lu, G., Maute, A., Deng, Y., Anderson, B.. (2022). Assessment of using field-aligned currents to drive the global ionosphere thermosphere model: A case study for the 2013 St Patrick's Day geomagnetic storm. Space Weather, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2022SW003170

In this study, field-aligned currents (FACs) obtained from the Active Magnetosphere and Planetary Electrodynamics Response Experiment data set have been used to specify the high-latitude electric potential in the Global Ionosphere Thermosph...

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The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2

Yeager, S., Rosenbloom, N., Glanville, A. A., Wu, X., Simpson, I. R., et al. (2022). The Seasonal-to-Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) prediction system using the Community Earth System Model version 2. Geoscientific Model Development, doi:https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-15-6451-2022

The potential for multiyear prediction of impactful Earth system change remains relatively underexplored compared to shorter (subseasonal to seasonal) and longer (decadal) timescales. In this study, we introduce a new initialized prediction...

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The consequences of surface-exchange coefficient uncertainty on an otherwise highly predictable major hurricane

Nystrom, R. G., Judt, F.. (2022). The consequences of surface-exchange coefficient uncertainty on an otherwise highly predictable major hurricane. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0320.1

In addition to initial conditions, uncertainty in model physics can also influence the practical predictability of tropical cyclones. In this study, the influence that various magnitudes of uncertainty in the surface exchange coefficients o...

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Strategies to build a positive and inclusive Antarctic field work environment

Karplus, M. S., Young, T. J., Anandakrishnan, S., Bassis, J. N., Case, E. H., et al. (2022). Strategies to build a positive and inclusive Antarctic field work environment. Annals of Glaciology, doi:https://doi.org/10.1017/aog.2023.32

To increase inclusivity, diversity, equity and accessibility in Antarctic science, we must build more positive and inclusive Antarctic field work environments. The International Thwaites Glacier Collaboration (ITGC) has engaged in efforts t...

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Role of ocean and atmosphere variability in scale-dependent thermodynamic air-sea interactions

Laurindo, L. C., Small, R. J., Thompson, L., Siqueira, L., Bryan, F. O., et al. (2022). Role of ocean and atmosphere variability in scale-dependent thermodynamic air-sea interactions. Journal of Geophysical Research: Oceans, doi:https://doi.org/10.1029/2021JC018340

This study investigates the influence of oceanic and atmospheric processes in extratropical thermodynamic air-sea interactions resolved by satellite observations (OBS) and by two climate model simulations run with eddy-resolving high-resolu...

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"Gray Zone" simulations using a three-dimensional planetary boundary layer parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model

Juliano, T. W., Kosović, B., Munoz, P. A. J., Eghdami, M., Haupt, S. E., et al. (2022). "Gray Zone" simulations using a three-dimensional planetary boundary layer parameterization in the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0164.1

Generating accurate weather forecasts of planetary boundary layer (PBL) properties is challenging in many geographical regions, oftentimes due to complex topography or horizontal variability in, for example, land characteristics. While rece...

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The value of assimilating different ground-based profiling networks on the forecasts of bore-generating nocturnal convection

Chipilski, H., Wang, X., Parsons, D. B., Johnson, A., Degelia, S. K.. (2022). The value of assimilating different ground-based profiling networks on the forecasts of bore-generating nocturnal convection. Monthly Weather Review, doi:https://doi.org/10.1175/MWR-D-21-0193.1

There is a growing interest in the use of ground-based remote sensors for numerical weather prediction, which is sparked by their potential to address the currently existing observation gap within the planetary boundary layer. Nevertheless,...

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