Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in high-impact weather prediction

In 2019, the Advanced Study Program hosted "Quantifying and communicating uncertainty in high-impact weather prediction."


NCAR organizers: Glen Romine, Rebecca Morss, Julie Demuth & Chris Snyder

University organizers: Lance Bosart (SUNY Albany) and Russ Schumacher (Colorado State University)

National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) in Boulder, CO, USA. July 15-26 2019

Severe convective weather events produce life and property losses that could be mitigated by improved hazard predictions. Yet, forecasts are constrained by atmospheric predictability and our ability to accurately simulate the true atmosphere. Further, to fully utilize our current prediction capability we must address rapidly growing data volume issues and current deficiencies in our ability to effectively communicate threat information. Moreover, interdisciplinary approaches crossing atmospheric, data, and risk communication science are necessary to advance our high-impact hazard prediction capabilities. Toward this goal, this colloquium will assemble students into interdisciplinary teams to create comprehensive uncertainty assessments that evolve in space and time as an event horizon for high-impact weather events is approached. These assessments will examine atmospheric predictability leveraging state-of-the-art forecast tools and methods in combination with factors that influence risk assessment and decision-making across a spectrum of potentially impacted communities. Each team will be guided by experts in weather prediction, data science, and risk communication to develop their assessments, will present their results at the conclusion of the colloquium, and will aid the workshop organizers in defining a roadmap for the future scientific workforce needs to improve future hazard prediction