The Science of Subseasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Predictions

Organizers: Judith Berner (NCAR) and Aneesh Subramanian (CU Boulder)
Scientific organizing committee:Yaga Richter (NCAR), Elizabeth Barnes (Colorado State University), Donata Giglio (CU Boulder),Neena Mani Joseph (IISER Pune, India), Arun Kumar (NOAA/CPC), Kathy Pegion (GMU),Carolyn Reynolds (NRL), Sam Shen (SDSU), Yuhei Takaya (JMA-MRI, Japan), Frederic Vitart (ECMWF),Duane Waliser (JPL/CalTech), and Chidong Zhang (PMEL/NOAA)

This Summer Colloquium was intended to bring experts from academia and operational centers together with graduate students and early-career scientists to discuss predictions on the subseasonal to seasonal timescale. S2S science bridges the prediction gap between weather and climate and forecasts on this timescale are highly sought after by the energy, water management, agriculture, and other sectors.

It featured lectures from domestic and international experts on the fundamental processes leading to S2S predictability such as the Madden-Julian Oscillation, sudden stratospheric warmings, and interactions with the land and cryosphere.

This colloquium provided attendees with an integrated conceptual understanding of numerical modeling, initialization strategies, ensemble configuration and applications of S2S-predictions. Attendees also gained hands-on experience by applying probabilistic verification and process-based S2S diagnostics to numerical simulation output.

Scientific workshop

As part of the colloquium a scientific workshop was held July 11-15, 2022 as part of which invited speakers presented the latest results and challenges in this fast moving field.

Note: Please be aware that all applicants selected to the ASP Colloquium are expected to adhere to the UCAR Code of Conduct while participating in any NCAR/UCAR led activity.

We encourage applications from individuals who are members of a group that is historically underrepresented in the atmospheric and related sciences, including students who are black or African American, American Indian or Alaska Native, Hispanic or Latino, female, first-generation college students, veterans, and students with disabilities. The program welcomes lesbian, gay, bisexual, and transgender students.