UNIVERSITY OF MISSOURI

Building Nocturnal Weather Hazard Resilience in the Southeastern U.S.

The southeastern U.S. region experiences a high proportion of nocturnal rapid-onset hazards that can occur quickly and with little time for warning (e.g., tornadoes and flash flood events). When tornadoes and flash floods occur at night, they increase fatality odds as they are difficult for the weather enterprise to forecast and challenging for the public to respond to, as much of the population may be sleeping when they occur. Furthermore, Kentucky and the Southeast contain a high percentage of socially vulnerable populations with an increased likelihood of being disproportionately affected and adversely harmed during tornado and flash flood hazards.

This project seeks to reduce harm from nocturnal hazards and build resilience by examining spatial, temporal, and contextual characteristics of nocturnal flash floods and tornadoes and their dynamic interactions with critical infrastructure (urban and rural), social vulnerability, and protective decisionmaking. The southeastern state of Kentucky is the proposed study area, given its nocturnal hazard risk and a high percentage of socially vulnerable populations.

In collaboration with NSF NCAR scientists and community stakeholders, this proposal seeks to advance new knowledge in three transferable areas, including (1) assessing atmospheric and hydrological conditions promoting nocturnal hazard risk, (2) examining relationships between nocturnal hazard risk conditions, social vulnerability, and critical infrastructure, and (3) identifying local and contextual needs in nocturnal hazard risk communication to codesign decision support tools.

Student Researcher: TBD

FRANKLIN & MARSHALL COLLEGE

Urban agrivoltaics and environmental justice: How can atmospheric models support equitable adoption in two US cities?

This proposed research develops the environmental justice dimensions of a larger collaboration investigating the scientific and societal feasibility of scaling up agrivoltaic systems (AVS), or co-located solar panels with agriculture, in urban US settings. AVS installation has seen nearly exponential growth around the world in recent years. AVS generate enthusiasm for their potential to contribute to both the renewable energy supply and agriculture, vegetation, and grazing animal or pollinator habitats. Compared to more conventional land use schemes where fields are zoned exclusively for solar panels or food crops, AVS has the potential to maximize land use, uniquely situating it for dense urban settings. Despite the immense potential for upscaling AVS in cities, however, nearly all major efforts to assess the opportunities and risks of AVS have focused on rural settings.

Building from my participation as a social scientist on one of those newer collaborations, this project mobilizes two case studies of urban AVS siting to center the under-researched environmental justice questions that these resilience infrastructures raise. The case studies are the large city of Philadelphia, PA and the small city of Lancaster, PA, in a state where policymaker interest in incentivizing AVS is growing.

My community-engaged research investigates best practices for harmonizing scientific feasibility data from NSF NCAR models and related resources with community understandings of social feasibility rooted in longitudinal environmental expertise, food and energy needs, and the ongoing struggle against environmental injustice. The project would also entail participatory AVS design workshops, analysis of policy frameworks for equitable adoption, and public outreach.

Student Researcher: TBD

UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA -- BERKELEY

Energy Transitions amid Water Scarcity: The implications of climate change for low-carbon energy transitions in the Great Basin

Amid escalating climate impacts, urgent efforts to transition to low-carbon energy are colliding with critical water justice issues in the arid landscapes of the American West. With the emergence of new frontiers of critical mineral extraction and renewable energy development, communities are raising concerns about potential impacts on water resources. The Great Basin is emblematic of this tension as the most water scarce region in the U.S. and as a key battleground for energy transition development.

This project, focused on two designated groundwater river basins in the Great Basin (Amargosa Desert and Fish Lake Valley), will merge geospatial data visualization, Earth system science, water rights analysis, and qualitative methods to understand the impacts of climate change on future water availability and how this in turn shapes the equitable siting of low-carbon energy infrastructure. Leveraging NSF NCAR’s expertise and resources to support the hydroclimatic modeling of the current and future rates of groundwater recharge in the study sites, The resulting spatial models for changes in groundwater recharge across climate change scenarios will be integrated into an open, interactive GIS platform alongside current and proposed low-carbon energy and critical mineral mining projects and related water demands.

The project, co-developed alongside community partners over two years, is a direct outcome of community members articulating the need for updated science on groundwater recharge to inform the equitable siting of low-carbon energy transition infrastructure. Using geospatial data visualization, community workshops, and scholarly papers, the project will inform equitable approaches to the low-carbon energy transition infrastructure in water scarce regions.

Student Researcher: TBD

UNIVERSITY OF HAWAI'I -- MANOA

Hot hot hot: Exploring how extreme heat will affect Hawaii’s fledgling food system renaissance

A stable climate has always been key for agricultural productivity, and with climate stability undermined, climate projections forecast loss in yields for many critical food crops. Given the climate scenarios, scholars have naturally turned their attention to understanding the impact of the myriad of climate stressors on agricultural productivity. A large body of work now documents the impact of climate stressors (extreme heat and cold, changes in precipitation, sea level rise, and changes in seasonality) on agricultural yields. Beyond climate impacts on agriculture and food security, scholars have also elucidated adaptations to protect yields that largely encompass changes at the farmlevel, with crop insurance playing a significant role in shoring up investment security. Beyond loss in yields, extreme heat causes more fatalities in the U.S. than any other extreme weather event. However, it was not until the COVID-19 pandemic that the very real consequences of limited labor mobility came to the forefront for policy makers. Beyond the limited attention the pandemic provided, labor considerations have largely been understudied in climate impact and adaptation literature. Additionally, a systematic analysis of extreme heat impacts and adaptations is currently missing from the food system landscape in Hawai’i. This gap however is critical for planning for climate smart food systems.

In our study we are interested in understanding the impact of extreme heat on labor and mobility in the Hawaiian food system. The emphasis on labor stems from traditional indigenous food production practices aligning with low or no till, meaning a lot of manual labor is necessary to prepare the land for planting. In a food system so dependent on labor what will be the cascading effect of extreme heat?

Student Researcher: TBD

FLORIDA STATE UNIVERSITY

Water Justice in Crisis: Assessing Desalination as Climate Adaptation with and for Island Communities in the Caribbean

As desalted water becomes a critical water source for over 16 Caribbean islands, including the U.S. Virgin Islands, desalination introduces new societal risks. While leveraging ocean resources to adapt to climate challenges, desalination can exacerbate risks for specific communities, becoming a maladaptive strategy. This research examines the complex relationship between desalination, risk, and crises, which have historically been studied in isolation.

This project seeks to understand the dynamics of desalinated water management during crises. How do island communities perceive desalination in terms of water justice? What are the cascading impacts of desalinated water management? What are the critical vulnerability layers at the intersection of desalination and water injustices that define water geographies? The research will make visible community perspectives and perceptions, particularly from ethnic minority groups; participatory mapping workshops will identify risk areas for water scarcity, and community workshops will explore the cascading impacts of desalination. Through comprehensive reports, academic papers, and water policy briefs, this dissemination aims to influence strategies and policies, enhancing the understanding of desalination’s broader implications for the Caribbean region. Ultimately, the project will bolster community engagement and capacity building, empowering stakeholders to manage and advocate for sustainable water resources. By integrating community views into the analysis of desalinated water management, the research aims to establish a framework that promotes inclusive and effective strategies to address the challenges of desalination in Caribbean Island communities, seeking to ensure that desalination becomes a fair and safe solution for managing water resources in these vulnerable regions.

Student Researcher: TBD